HOW TO PRICE UP A HORSE RACE
Where many horse racing gamblers go wrong is by betting in every race. They would be better off concentrating their efforts at looking deeper at just a few races a day and finding horses that are most likely to win at value odds.
To do this you must come up with a price for every runner in your chosen race. This method for pricing up a race must be based on some sort of logic.
How to pick the right sort of races.
I prefer to concentrate on races with moderate fields of say between 8 to 14 runners. I also choose races with plenty of exposed form.
So I would also discard all maiden races and kick out selling handicaps. Once you've done that you are left with the races that you want to have a possible bet in.
If you want to narrow down the races for the day even more concentrate on the two classiest handicap races of the day.
The next step is to work out the true odds of the race. One simple way to do this is to look at the first 4 positions in the betting forecast, or any horse forecast at 8/1 or less. Around 65% of all of the winners in races come from this group.
To work out the odds of each horse in the race award 3 points to the first 4 in the betting forecast and 1 point to all of the other horses.
To convert all of these points into percentages add the total number of points together for all of the horses and then dividing each individual horses score by the total number of points.
For example a horse with 3 points, in a race with a total score of 19 would have 3 / 19 = 0.157 and a horse with 1 point in the same race would have a score of 1 / 19 = 0.056. I leave this bit and do step two next.
To make your own prices even more accurate it is advisable to add some form figures to the horses. Based on current form and other factors such a course and distance win etc.
Current Form Ratings
Points are awarded as listed below for each of the runners' previous two outings in the current season.
1st 5 points
2nd 3 points
3rd 2 points
4th 1 point
Course & Distance (C&D)
C&D 3 points
C.D 3 points
D 2 points
C 1 point
Convert all of these points into percentages by adding the total number of points together for all of the horses and then dividing each individual horses score by the total number of points, the same as in step one.
Now you have two columns of figures, one for the shape of the race the other for your form rating. Add these two columns figures together and convert them into percentages as above.
To convert percentage to prices, Decimal Odds - Exchange prices, divide 1 by the percentage.
Fractional Odds - Bookies prices to one, divide 1 by the percentage and subtract one.
That is one easy way to work out your own odds for any race.
You could back the horse with the shortest odds on your figures or wait for one of your outsiders to come along at a value price.