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Horse Racing Betting Why The Going Conditions Are So Important


Horse Racing Betting Why The Going Conditions Are So Important


Do you research the ground conditions when considering a bet? Working out the possibilities of a horse being successful in a particular competition is a bit like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. There are so many factors to consider. But each little bit of detail has a say on whether your horse is likely to cross the winning line at the front, or to be an also-ran.

But there is one essential item of the jigsaw that often gets neglected. Many gamblers brush over it, and some keep it out of their computations completely. But I consider it to be one of the single-most key elements when weighing up a race-card -- the Going.
Whether I am assessing the horses for the Derby, the Cheltenham festival, or a maiden race at Warwick, the one concern  I always ask myself is "Will my horse be able to act over the existing ground conditions?"

This one item of data, in my view, is more essential than the trainer, jockey, distance of the race and previous course form of the horse.

The condition of the Going underfoot can be classified by one of the following descriptions: Hard, Firm, Good to Firm, Good, Good to Soft, Soft, and Heavy.

The Going conditions are very essential because often racehorses will have a personal preference for operating on one kind of ground over another. Horses of varying inherited make-up will act diversely in the way they manage various racecourse surfaces.

So how can we as gamblers take benefits of these differences?

The first factor we can do is to get down to the parade ring before a competition and examine the horse's hoofs, why? Well, usually racehorses with big hoofs similar to soup-plates will be much better suited if the going is soft or heavy. This is because the bodyweight of the animal is spread across a larger frame, and it is able to skim over the surface rather than getting trapped in the mud. Horses with small 'donkey' legs are more likely to sink into the ground.

Once the horses have left the parade ring take your position in the grandstand, and focus your field glasses on the race horses as they go to the starting gate. Although the horses will not be operating at full speed, the intelligent punter can still take away a few more snippets of info before determining whether or not to place a wager with the bookmakers.

The factor to look out for is the horse's action. By that I mean exactly how it gallops along. A horse with a running style called a rounded action raises its legs much greater with each pace, and will most likely act better on soft going. Then there is a horse with a daisy-cutting action that hardly raises his hoofs off the ground.

This kind of race horse is more likely to appreciate going which is more on the firm or hard side. These rules are obviously never going to be 100% precise, but you would be surprised how many times you can prevent yourself putting a silly wager on a horse that is not likely to take to the days going conditions. Creating revenue from gambling on horses is just as much about avoiding losers as picking the winners.

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How To Price Up A Horse Race And Make Your Own Odds



Where many horse racing gamblers go wrong is by betting in every race. They would be better off concentrating their efforts at looking deeper at just a few races a day and finding horses that are most likely to win at value odds.

To do this you must come up with a price for every runner in your chosen race. This method for pricing up a race must be based on some sort of logic.

How to pick the right sort of races.
I prefer to concentrate on races with moderate fields of say between 8 to 14 runners. I also choose races with plenty of exposed form.
So I would also discard all maiden races and kick out selling handicaps. Once you've done that you are left with the races that you want to have a possible bet in.

If you want to narrow down the races for the day even more concentrate on the two classiest handicap races of the day.

Step One
The next step is to work out the true odds of the race. One simple way to do this is to look at the first 4 positions in the betting forecast, or any horse forecast at 8/1 or less. Around 65% of all of the winners in races come from this group.
To work out the odds of each horse in the race award 3 points to the first 4 in the betting forecast and 1 point to all of the other horses.
To convert all of these points into percentages add the total number of points together for all of the horses and then dividing each individual horses score by the total number of points.
For example a horse with 3 points, in a race with a total score of 19 would have 3 / 19 = 0.157 and a horse with 1 point in the same race would have a score of 1 / 19 = 0.056. I leave this bit and do step two next.

Step Two
To make your own prices even more accurate it is advisable to add some form figures to the horses. Based on current form and other factors such a course and distance win etc.

Current Form Ratings
Points are awarded as listed below for each of the runners' previous two outings in the current season.
1st 5 points
2nd 3 points
3rd 2 points
4th 1 point

Course & Distance (C&D)
C&D 3 points
C.D 3 points
D 2 points
C 1 point

Convert all of these points into percentages by adding the total number of points together for all of the horses and then dividing each individual horses score by the total number of points, the same as in step one.

Step Three
Now you have two columns of figures, one for the shape of the race the other for your form rating. Add these two columns figures together and convert them into percentages as above.

To convert percentage to prices, Decimal Odds - Exchange prices, divide 1 by the percentage.
Fractional Odds - Bookies prices to one, divide 1 by the percentage and subtract one.

That is one easy way to work out your own odds for any race.
You could back the horse with the shortest odds on your figures or wait for one of your outsiders to come along at a value price.

About the Author

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How To Use Horse Racing Ratings Systems

One factor that you will understand as you study horse racing form is that you need some type of methodical technique to be successful.

Just studying previous races and trying to choose a winning horse or putting on a multiple bet such a Yankee is an excellent way to waste a lot of cash and end up very puzzled. When I started backing horses I tried this type of method and ended up giving my local bookmakers a lot of my hard earned wages.

You need an efficient rating method so you can then you can evaluate the horses and the odds on offer from various bookmakers and come up with a reasonable value bet. A reasonable value bet is a bet that the odds on offer are better than the horse's chance of winning in your estimation. In other terms, if you bet the horse twenty times at those odds, it will win enough times that you will gradually make profit ahead.

Creating ten per cent revenue is no little accomplishment when you're handicapping horseracing for a living. It all begins with finding an excellent efficient way to rate the horses. I'm not saying there's only one way, but I do believe there is place for several techniques.
First of all, some individuals try to use one single angle such as following a certain trainer and pin all their hopes on that. They may bet the horse with the best speed rating, class or the horse that has won most at that track and rely on it winning.

One single aspect of handicapping can be efficient if a horse has a big enough advantage. However, a horse that is outstanding in any one area it will usually be bet down very seriously. It is difficult to get reasonable odds on such a horse.

Then there is another way. Some handicappers use a final ranking or score to assess each runner in the race. Each aspect that is involved in the rating system such as class, form rating, course and distance and speed is given an individual points rating and then they are added together. That final rating figure can then be compared to the odds on offer by bookies to discover some value.

Knowing the possibility of a horse crossing the line first can give you some excellent winners. For example, if your final figure gives a horse a 50% possibility of being successful, then you look to find a price better than evens odds

I usually lean toward handicapping ratings techniques these days and make a few final checks before placing a bet. Some final checks are that one of the top jockeys is riding the horse, the trainer in not out of form. And the horse can handle the ground conditions.


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